Population Biology

Sri Lanka Framed.gif (39560 bytes)

This graph shows birth rates (green)
and death rates (violet)
in the nation of Sri Lanka between 1939 and 1984.

Notice the following:

1.  Births exceeded deaths throughout the period.
2.  Birth rates generally declined during the study.
3.  Death rates also declined during the study.

4.  If we subtract deaths from births in 1939, the difference is 14 extra births per thousand.

If we subtract briths from deaths in 1984, the difference is
21 extra births per thousand.


Why the Sri Lanka Graph is remarkable:

Even though birth rates declined,
Sri Lanka's rate of growth was actually 50% faster in 1984 than it was in 1939.

Why?
Because even though birth rates declined,
death rates declined even more --
so that Sri Lanka's  population ended up
growing
faster than ever by 1984.


 


The Rise and Fall of a Reindeer Herd

Rise and Fall Reindeer Graph.jpg (22562 bytes)

Mammals don't undergo population explosionsand then undergo population collapses, do they?
Such things only happen to things like mayflies, right?
Notice the sudden increase -- and just as importantly -- the huge collapse which follows.

 

Human Population Growth

Human Population Graph.jpg (13931 bytes)

Over The Past 2000 Years
Notice the dangerous J-Curve the human data displays.
In most settings, a J-curve is like a fire-alarm going off in a burning building,
but we are only alerted to its danger if some teacher, somewhere, teaches us the
powerful and deceptive characteristics of exponential number sequences.

 

 

 

 


Sigmoid Curve.jpg (15302 bytes)

Population biologists sometimes see a graph like this:
an  S-Curve



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Copyright 2002, Randolph Femmer.
All rights reserved